资源环境承载力预警研究进展评述

随着经济发展导致的资源环境问题日益突出,资源环境承载力研究成为热点。经过近百年的发展,资源环境承载力概念从单要素承载力逐渐演进到多要素综合承载力,研究内容涉及人口资源、水资源、土地资源、矿产资源等,形成了丰富的研究成果,资源承载力成为衡量区域可持续发展的重要依据。但是由于区域人口经济规模的动态性特征,单一的、静态的资源环境承载力评价已无法满足国土资源与空间精细化管理的发展需求,资源环境承载力研究逐渐向资源环境承载力预警转变。文章通过梳理国内外资源环境承载力研究进程及国内资源环境承载力预警相关研究发现:多要素资源环境承载力缺乏统一的理论基础,在测算时大多是将单要素承载力进行简单的融合;承载力预警机制的研究不足,在资源环境承载力的阈值界定与关键参数设定方面还未达成一致的共识,还未形成全面适用的具体的临界超载与超载的关键阈值与预警指数标准。

Review on Research Progress of EarlyWarning of Resources and Environmental Bearing Capacity

With the increasingly serious problem of resources and environment caused by economic development,the research on the bearing capacity of resources and environment has become a hot topic.With nearly a hundred years of development,the con cept of resource and environment bearing capacity has gradually evolved from a single factor to a multi-factor of comprehensive one.The research involves rich aspects of population resource,water resource,land resource,mineral resource,etc.Resource bear ing capacity has become an important basis for measuring regional sustainable development.However,due to the dynamic charac teristics of regional population and economic scale,a single and static assessment of resources and environment bearing capacity can no longer meet the development needs of the land resource and refined spatial management.The research on resources and en vironment bearing capacity has gradually shifted to the study of its early warning.This paper reviews the research process of re sources and environment bearing capacity home and abroad and domestic research of its early warning and gain some findings.It is found that the multi-factor resources and environment bearing capacity lacks a unified theoretical basis and most of the researches only simply integrated the single-factor bearing capacity in calculation;the research on the early warning mechanism of bearing ca pacity is insufficient;there is still no consensus on the threshold definition and key parameter setting of the bearing capacity of re sources and environment,and no comprehensive and applicable specific critical overload and overload threshold and early warning index standards have not been formed.