1990年以来我国城镇真实失业率有多高?

我国政府一直没有公布城镇的真实失业率,而学者的估计往往在统计口径上不一致,方法上也还存在一定的缺陷。利用第五次人口普查资料,作了定量比较。以现有资料推算我国真实的失业率,失业人数调整法比失业率调整法更为科学,并通过线性回归法得到调节系数。我国目前城镇的真实失业率为8.8%,失业人员总量低幅增长,失业率已持续下降。

The Estimation of the Real Ratio of Unemployment in City And Town Since 1990

The true unemployment rate in cities and towns has not been disclosed our government,and the statistical standards of estimation used by scholars is often inconsistent and there are also some mistakes in methods.by use of the fifth census data and quantitative analysis this paper point out that the adjustments of the number of unemployed is more scientific than that of unemployment rate,and get the coefficients of adjustment by regression.Finally it draws a conclusion:the unemployment rate is 8.8% currently,the unemployed is increasing slowly,the unemployment rate has continued to drop.