中国未来婚姻挤压研究

中国的男孩偏好和对女孩的歧视导致了男性婚姻挤压。在潜在初婚比模型的基础上,使用标准化初婚频率和去进度效应方法设计了两种新的模型,并与现有模型结合,研究中国婚姻挤压状况。在潜在初婚比基础上开发的模型所得到的结论基本相同。2016年到2046年的30年时间里,婚姻市场上男性和女性的潜在初婚比都在1.15以上;2060年之后保持在1.05-1.08水平。从2000年开始,中国会面临严重的男性婚姻挤压,2016年至2046年平均每年过剩男性在120-150万之间,2060年之后每年在50万之下。如果出生性别比得不到有效控制,则未来男性婚姻挤压情况将严重得多。

A Study of China's Future Marriage Squeeze

China's son preference and discrimination against girls have resulted in male marriage squeeze.Based on the sex ratio of potential first marriage partners,we develop two new models by standardizing first marriage frequencies and eliminating the tempo effect.The two newly developed models and the two existing models,we predict China's marriage squeeze during 2000-2100 with the four models.We find that these newly developed models based on sex ratio of potential first marriage partners,obtain almost the same results.During the 30 years from 2016 to 2046,the sex ratio of potential males to females is above 1.15,and remains 1.05 to 1.08 after 2060.From 2000 onward,China will be confronted with severe male surplus,annual surplus males number 1.2 to 1.5 million.After 2060,the number remains below 0.5 million.But if the high sex ratio at birth can not be controlled,the male marriage squeeze will be much more severe.