中国纸制品消费趋势:城市化增长的效应分析和预测

基于对近期未来的人口—经济增长的预测,分析了城市化增长对未来纸制品消费的影响。用"自相关误差回归"的方法检验人口和城市化增长的不同发展路径对于纸制品消费的影响。中国的城市化过程对纸制品消费影响很大,更快的城市化进程,相应的影响会更强烈。比较人口变量和经济变量,城市家庭经济因素相对更加明显。在近期的未来,随着纸制品消费的增加,其对环境污染的压力也会增大。

Scenario Analysis for the Trends of Paper Consumption in China:Urbanization Effect in the Medium Term

This paper analyzes the impact of urban growth on future paper consumption based on the medium term demographic-economic scenarios.The method of "regression with authocorrelated errors" is used to examine implications of alternative development paths of urban growth on paper consumption.The simulation results confirm a hypothesis that the urbanization process in China strongly affects paper consumption.Since more rapid urbanization process is possible,it would have correspondingly larger effects.Comparing demographic variables with economic variables,the effect of urban household economic factors is relatively more pronounced.According to the simulation results,we expect that pressure for environmental aggravation will increase in association with the paper consumption growth in the medium term future.