产需双重不确定情形下绿色农产品供应链的协调研究

为解决产需不确定性给绿色农产品供应链运营带来的复杂影响,寻求绿色农产品生产商和销售商面对产需双重不确定情形下各自的最优决策,研究从农产品产出和市场需求双重不确定性视角出发,结合目前消费者对绿色农产品的需求偏好,构建由生产商和销售商组成的Stackelberg博弈模型,探究收益共享契约能否有效协调产需都不确定的绿色农产品供应链。研究结果表明:分散决策时的批发价契约无法协调此供应链。引入收益共享契约后,在合适的共享系数范围内,生产商的农资投入量会增加,农产品的绿色度会比分散决策时高,同时销售商的销售价格降低;当农产品订购量变大后,引入契约后的生产商和销售商各自的利润相较于分散决策时更高。

Research on Coordination of Green Agricultural Products Supply Chain under Double Uncertainty of Production and Demand

In order to cope with the complex impact of uncertain production and demand on the operation of green agricultural product supply chain and find out the optimal solution for green agricultural product producers and sellers in the face of such double uncertainty,this research constructed a Stackelberg game model comprised of producers and sellers from the perspective of double uncertainty of agricultural product output and market demand.In combination with present consumer preferences for green agricultural products,this research explores whether the revenue sharing contract can effectively coordinate the green agricultural product supply chain with uncertain production and demand.According to the results,the wholesale price contract in the decentralized decision cannot coordinate the supply chain.With the revenue sharing contract introduced,the amount of input by producers in agricultural production means increases within the appropriate range of sharing coefficient,the greenness of agricultural products is higher than that at the time of decentralized decision,and sellers decrease their sales prices;as the order quantity of agricultural products increases,the producers and sellers introducing the contract gain higher profits than that at the time of decentralized decision.