人民币实际汇率及波动对进出口贸易的影响——以江苏省与美国进出口贸易为例

本文基于进出口需求方程,通过建立AR-GARCH模型及协整模型来研究影响江苏省与美国进出口贸易的主要因素。研究发现,江苏省和美国两个各自的国内收入(生产总值)、人民币实际有效汇率水平对进出口贸易都有较大的正向显著影响,而人民币汇率波动没有显著影响,在分析这一结果背后原因的同时,提出密切关注美国经济走势,及时指导外贸企业规避风险,树立企业外汇风险意识,增强企业外汇风险管理能力,进一步增强经济实力,优化贸易结构等政策建议。

The Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate and Volatility on International Trade in Jiangsu Province --Taking the Trade Between Jiangsu Province and the United States as an Example

In this paper, through the establishment of AR-GARCH model and cointegration model we study the main influencing factors of import and export trade between Jiangsu province and the United States. The study finds, two of their domestic income in Jiangsu province and the United States of America （GDP） have signifi positive effects on the import and export trade, cant the RMB real effective exchange rate has a significant negative impact on the exports of Jiangsu province to the United States of America, the volatility of RMB exchange rate has no significant effect on the import and export trade between Jiangsu province and the United States, at the same time the analysis of the reasons behind this results , we put forward some policy suggestions, such as paying close attention to the trend of American economy, timely guidance to foreign trade enterprises to avoid risks, setting up the enterprises＇ consciousness of exchange risk, enhancing the ability of foreign exchange risk management in enterprises, and further enhancing the economic strength, optimizing the trade structure of Jiangsu province.