地方财政一般预算收入预测模型及实证分析

目前,我国地方财政收入预测模型的水平参差不齐,预测方法科学不足、预测机制不能与国际接轨。本文结合地方财政收入的构成内容以及结构特点,使用传统时间序列、多元回归以及基于学习理论的SVM方法,分别对一般预算收入以及其中的主要税种建立单项预测模型,最后引入组合预测方法将上述三种方法有效结合,在浙江省实际数据的支持下建立了较为完整的地方财政一般预算收入预测模型,预测出浙江省“十一五”期间的地方财政一般预算收入。

Forecasting Model and Empirical Research on the General Budget Revenue of Regional Finance

At present, the ability revenue varies . Forecasting method is of establishing forcasting model of financial insufficiently scientific and forecasting mechanism can not merge with the world. This paper, combining the contents and structures of regional financial revenue, makes use of traditional time sequencial meth- od, multi - meta regression as well as SVM to establish single forcasting models for general budget revenues and several main tax types. It combines the above three methods by introducing combining - forcasting methods effectively, and establishes a reletively integrated forcasting model of regional financial budget revenues on the basis of real data of Zhejiang province as well as forcasts the general budget revenue of regional finance from 2006 to 2010 in Zhejiang province.