Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts* |
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| Authors: | Matei Demetrescu Mu‐Chun Wang |
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| Institution: | 1. Hausdorff Center for Mathematics and Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24‐42, D‐53113 Bonn, Germany (e‐mail: matei.demetrescu@uni-bonn.de) ;2. Department of Economics, University of Hamburg, Von‐Melle‐Park 5, D‐20146 Hamburg, Germany (email: mu-chun.wang@wiso.uni-hamburg.de) |
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| Abstract: | Ordinary fan charts consist of symmetric marginal forecast intervals, and do not take into consideration the concrete loss function of the user of the forecast. The note shows how to build fan charts that have exact joint coverage even under asymmetric loss, and maintain at the same time the intuition conveyed by ordinary fan charts. The proposed method is computationally simple, and easily implemented with any loss function. The differences between the information conveyed by fan charts with or without asymmetries, and with or without exact joint coverage, are illustrated with a Bayesian forecast exercise of US GDP growth rates. |
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| Keywords: | C53 C22 C11 |
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