经济增长风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的“溢出效应”

在非确定性的经济环境当中 ,我们利用经济增长率的绝对离差、条件标准差和在险增长水平等三种方法度量了经济增长风险和条件波动性 ,然后利用冲击反应函数度量了经济增长水平对于经济增长风险的动态反应 ,并检验了增长水平与波动性之间的影响关系。检验结果表明 ,经济风险性和波动性与经济增长水平之间存在显著正相关关系 ,由此可以推断经济周期波动性对于经济增长水平存在“溢出效应” ,较高的经济波动性带来了经济增长水平的“风险奖励” ;同时 ,从经济风险的传导过程中可以判断 ,非确定性因素和突发事件尚未对我国经济增长的趋势水平形成显著干预 ,我国经济增长过程抵御外部冲击的能力已经得到显著提高。

The Transmission Mechanisms of Country Risks and Spillover Effects of Business Cycles in China's Economy

Under the environment with economic uncertainty, we use the absolute deviation, conditional variance and growth at risk to measure the country risks and conditional volatilities. We also use the response function to describe the dynamic responds of growth level to country risk, and test the relationship between growth and volatility by linear regression. The empirical evidences show that there is spillover effect of volatility during the business cycle. This means that the increase in volatility has positive effect on growth level. We are able to know that uncertain factors and external shocks do not influence China's growth trend significantly by analyzing the process of country risk transmission. China has more powers to prevent its economy from the impacts of external shocks.