我国产业发展的低端锁定困境与破解路径—基于矫正城镇化扭曲视角的实证分析

经济发展与社会结构变迁之间的矛盾运动关系表明,扭曲的城镇化发展模式是造成我国产业发展低端锁定的重要的社会结构原因.文章将我国的产业发展低端锁定问题拓展至工业化弱质和服务业滞后两个部门,将城镇化扭曲投影到城镇化建设的动因扭曲、主体扭曲和功能扭曲三个维度,构建"两部门?三维度"分析框架,采用典型化事实与评价指标体系相结合的方法分析了我国产业发展低端锁定的困境,并构建PLS-SEM结构方程模型,实证探讨了矫正城镇化扭曲,实现我国产业发展低端解锁的路径选择.研究结论表明,我国的工业化弱质问题表现为结构演进受阻和效率提升缓慢,我国的服务业滞后问题表现为生产性服务业的配套生产能力和生活性服务业的保障消费能力不足.改善地方财税制度可以显著地降低土地城镇化水平,加强对农民工劳动技能和素质的培养可以显著地降低农民工城镇化水平,在供给侧提升基本公共服务供给水平可以显著地降低城市病水平,进而矫正我国城镇化建设的动因扭曲、主体扭曲和功能扭曲.矫正城镇化扭曲对于改善我国工业化弱质和服务业滞后问题具有显著的促进作用,可以推动我国产业发展的低端解锁.

The Low-end Locking Condition of Chinese Industrial System and Its Unlocking Paths: An Empirical Study Based on Correcting Distorted Urbanization Perspective

The relationship between economic development and social structural evolution is a projec-tion of the paradoxical movement of productive forces and productive relations in social-economic field. After the reform and opening-up policy, China has been experiencing two significant revolutions in its economic field and social field respectively: one is the industrialization which leads to Chinese Economic Miracle, and the other is urbanization which helps to achieve the feat that five hundred million people civilized in just thirty years. However, when we re-examine this thirty-year construction and development process with quality-ori-ented perspective, the compression of time dimension exposes many problems in industrial development and urban construction, which mainly present as the low-end locking industrial system and the distorted urbaniza-tion.In this paper, we take the main line that distorted urbanization is one of the deep-seated social structure factor of Chinese low-end locking industrial system, and expand Chinese distorted urbanization into three di-mensions: motivation distortion—the land urbanization problem, body distortion—the peasant-worker urbaniz-ation problem, and function distortion—the urban disease. We also expand Chinese low-end locking industrial system into two sectors: the secondary industry's low-quality and the tertiary industry's lag behind, and then we build the "three dimensions—two sectors" analytical framework. Based on this framework, we analyze the low-end locking condition of Chinese industrial system by applying stylized facts and evaluation index, and then we give a discussion on the path selection of correcting distorted urbanization to unlock its low-end lock-ing industrial system by building a PLS-SEM model. The results indicate that: (i) Chinese secondary industry's low-quality present as the hindrance of structure evolution and the tardiness of efficiency promotion, and its tertiary industry's lag behind present as the producer service industries' insufficient ability in assisting produc-tion and the consumer service industries' insufficient ability in guaranteeing consumption. (ii) Optimizing loc-al financial and taxation system will lower the level of land urbanization and then generate unlocking effects to Chinese urbanization's motivation distortion; improving the skill education for peasant-workers and reforming Chinese household registration system to narrow the gaps between peasant-workers and local workers will lower the level of peasant-worker urbanization and then generate unlocking effects to Chinese urbanization's body distortion; reinforcing urban infrastructure construction, improving urban public service's supplying and distribution, and optimizing the administrative process will lower the level of urban disease and then generate unlocking effects to Chinese urbanization's function distortion.