黑龙江省生态经济系统能值的情景预测

运用能值分析方法,对黑龙江省2001～2010年能值流量进行动态定量分析,在分析能值发展趋势后建立了情景预测模型,对黑龙江省不可更新资源能值进行预测。结果显示:黑龙江省能值流量均有不同程度的增长,生态经济系统发展程度不断提高的同时环境压力随之增长;能值指标体系中,主要的7个指标中有5个呈恶化趋势,系统可持续性能有所下降;黑龙江省不可更新资源能值将保持年均5%以上的增速,资源消耗和环境压力将进一步增大;未来一段时间影响黑龙江省能值增长的关键因素是化石能源,其影响程度要大于资源,但其重要性会逐年减小。

Scenario Prediction for Emergy of Heilongjiang Eco-economic System

Based on the methods of emergy analysis,this paper studied the emergy flow in the ecological economic system of Heilongjiang in 2001~2010.After analyzing the trend of Heilongjiang eco-economic system,scenario prediction model was established to forecast the emergy value of nonrenewable resources.The main results could be summarized as follows: All emergy flows increased in various degrees,showing that development level of eco-economic system enhanced remarkably with the increasing environmental pressure;There are 5 indicators be coming worse,which of the emergy index system that has 7 main ones,and the sustainable performance of system is declining;The emergy value of nonrenewable resources would maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 5% in the following 4 years,and resources consumption as well as environmental pressure would further in crease;In the near future the key factor influencing emergy amount would be energy whose effect on emergy was greater than that of resources,with its important decreasing.