| Abstract: | The simulation strategies of econometrics, system dynamics, and cross-impact analysis have been alternately offered to policymakers over the years. The fact that proponents have tended to glorify their own model's merits and devalue the others has led to confusion and difficulties in making an objective, well-guided selection among them. This paper attempts to cut through the jungle of arguments and counterarguments and to reduce them to their essential elements. The paper then demonstrates that each model presents a unique version of a problem and that these versions are not necessarily competitive. Finally, a guide to modeling selection for policymakers is developed. |
