ARCH and GARCH models vs. martingale volatility of finance market returns |
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Authors: | Joseph L. McCauley |
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Affiliation: | Physics Department, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204-5005, United States |
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Abstract: | ![]() ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or ‘white noise’ as is usual in regression analysis, while also assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH is inconsistent with uncorrelated increments, violating the i.i.d. and ‘white’ assumptions, and violating finance data and the efficient market hypothesis as well. |
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Keywords: | Nonstationary differences/increments ARCH GARCH Martingales Efficient market hypothesis Volatility |
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