汇率-资本流动性的制度安排和财政-货币政策的有效性研究

笔者通过拓广的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,并突破了传统的"三元冲突"汇率制度安排理论的研究路径,考虑引入资本流动性相对强度系数的概念,又在固定汇率制下引入"冲销"干预政策因素,提出了一个在固定和浮动汇率及不同资本流动性制度安排下财政-货币政策有效性指数曲线的新假说,对汇率-资本流动性制度安排对于宏观经济政策(财政-货币政策)综合有效性的影响问题做了一些较为深入的探讨.笔者认为,我国作为一个经济大国应尽可能地拥有宏观经济政策的自主权,考虑到我国当前金融市场体系尚不够完善,货币政策传导机制还存在严重障碍,所以在近期财政政策的权重应大于货币政策,从而在我国汇率制度改革过程中,为保留宏观经济政策的自主权,在加快放宽人民币汇率弹性的同时必须加强相应的资本管制.

A Research on the Regime Arrangement of Exchange Rate and Capital Mobility and the Validity of Fiscal- Monetary Policy

Through the widened Mundell-Fleming model, breaking through the traditional research approach of "tri-lemma" theory about exchange rate regime arrangement, through the introduction of a relative intensity factor of capital mobility and the policy factor of offset intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, a new hypothesis is put forward in this paper, the validity index curve hypothesis of fiscal-monetary policy about different capital mobility under fixed and floating exchange rate regime. The problem of the effect of the exchange rate and capital mobility regime arrangements on the comprehensive validity of macroeconomic policy (fiscal-monetary policy) is discussed deeply. China as a big economic power should try to own as much macroeconomic policy autonomy as possible. Considering that the financial market system of our country is not perfect yet and serious obstacles still exist in the monetary policy transmission mechanism, fiscal policy should bear more weight than monetary policy, and then in the process of exchange rate regime reform, in order to reserve macroeconomic policy autonomy, while speeding up the relaxation of the exchange rate flexibility of RMB, the corresponding capital control should be strengthened.