The Post-entry Performance of Cohorts of Export Starters in German Manufacturing Industries☆

This paper investigates four cohorts of firms from German manufacturing industries that started to export between 1998 and 2002, and follows them for five years after the start. Export starters are a rare species and small in Germany. Around 30–40% of those starters studied became continuous exporters. The share of total exports contributed by export starters of a cohort is tiny in the start year, and it remains so over the years that follow. Contrary to the market selection hypothesis, there is no evidence that productivity in the start year is systematically related to survival in the export market. There is no evidence of a negative impact of a smaller firm size in the start year on the chance of surviving in the export market. Starting with a higher share of exports in total sales, however, tends to increase the probability of continuing to export.