对外贸易、金融改革和经济增长:来自中国的证据

本文根据技术扩散模型阐释,中国的技术进步取决于它对先进技术的吸收能力和可吸收的世界先进技术集合的乘积。金融改革通过消除经济扭曲提升我国的吸收能力。如果国际先进技术通过对外贸易扩散到中国,那么对外贸易和金融改革在增长中就存在相互促进的作用。利用中国改革开放后的数据,我们没有发现对外贸易(出口或进出口)和金融改革在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用。该结论在控制条件收敛、其他经济增长因素、分省和时间效应后成立,并在解决贸易的内生性后仍然稳健。将该结论和我们已发现的金融改革和外商直接投资在促进经济增长中有显著的互补作用的结果相对照,可见,与国际贸易相比,国际先进技术更可能通过外商直接投资扩散到中国。

Trade,Financial Deregulation and Economic Growth:Evidence from China

We use a technology diffusion model to show that China’s technological progress depends on its absorptive capability and the available pool of world frontier technologies for its absorption.Financial deregulation raises China’s absorptive capability by eliminating economic distortions.If world technologies were transferred to China via international trade,then there would be a complementary effect between financial deregulation and international trade in promoting growth.Using the reform period Chinese panel data,we find no evidence of a significant interaction effect between trade and financial deregulation in promoting growth.The results are robust after controlling for conditional convergence,other growth determinants,and time and province effects.The results are in contrast to our existing findings that there is a significant interaction effect between FDI and financial deregulation in promoting growth in China.