预期、资产价格与总需求-一个简明的理论框架

本文在风险资产价格和总产出空间内,建立了无风险资产、风险资产、信贷和商品市场的联立均衡模型。与传统结构性宏观模型的主要区别是明确地将风险资产价格融入模型当中,强调了预期与风险资产价格变化对总需求的影响,对于现阶段的宏观经济问题提供了有针对性且易于掌握的分析工具。比较静态分析中讨论了人民币升值预期、风险偏好下降、货币政策变动、扩张性财政计划以及外部需求下降等几种外部冲击对风险资产价格和总需求的影响。

Expectation,Asset Price and Aggregate Demand:A Simplified Theoretical Framework

Within the space of asset price and output,we describe simultaneous equilibrium in money market,asset market,credit market and goods market in China.Thanks to an explicit role of asset price in the model and its simplicity,this model provides researchers a useful instrument in conducting research on Chinese macro economy.In static comparative study part,we discussed impacts of RMB revaluation expectation,less risk appetite,monetary policy,fiscal policy and external demands on asset price and aggregate demand.