人口新常态约束下特大城市的规模调控与转型升级

不同国家、不同历史时期的特大城市人口规模变动极大，运用 Kernel 密度函数对中国城市人口规模分布的分析表明，当前以城区常住人口“500万以上”为特大城市的划分标准是合理的。从城市人口规模变动的动态历程来看，该变动主要受城市产业与经济发展的影响。对中国主要特大城市实有人口规模变动的分析表明，特大城市的人口规模调控应因时因地而动，不能搞一刀切，而且人口调控政策重点应该从数量控制转向结构优化。特大城市转型升级面临着农民工供给短缺、大学毕业生相对过剩、老年和少儿非劳动力人口持续增长等人口新常态约束。在这种人口增长新常态背景下，特大城市应坚持市场化改革方向，促进政府制度创新和企业技术与管理创新是城市转型升级的根本动力。

Population New Normal Constrain, Population Regulation and Control of Megacity and Transformation and Upgrading of City

The urban population size in different countries and historical periods is very different. By Kernel density function, the analysis of population size distribution of Chinese cities shows that it is reasonable to define a city with 5 million above urban permanent population as megacity. From the perspective of dynamic process of urban population size change, the change is mainly influenced by city industry and economic development. The analysis of actual population size change in principal megacities of China shows that the regulation and control on the population size of megacity should depend on time and place without imposing uniformity, and the focus of population regulation and control policy should turn to structure optimization from quantity control. Population new normal constrain such as peasant worker supply shortage, relative surplus of college graduates, continual growth of the old and the young as non-labor force population, etc. challenges the transformation and upgrading of megacities. On the background of such population growth new normal, megacities should hold the line of marketization reform, and institution innovation of the government and technology and management of enterprises is the basic power to drive the transformation and upgrading of cities.