我国经济周期波动的需求分析

在利用H-P滤波法分离经济变量波动成分和趋势成分的基础上，运用ADF单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验等计量经济方法实证研究了消费、投资以及净出口等需求因素与我国宏观经济波动的关系。研究结果表明：消费波动对我国宏观经济波动的影响最大，且为正；投资波动对宏观经济波动的影响较小，且为负；净出口的波动与我国宏观经济总侉波动没有Granger因果关系。

The Effects of Demanding Factors in Chinese Economic Fluctuation Period

Based on departing fluctuating from trend part with the H-P filtering wave method,this paper empirically researches on the relations among the demanding factors of consumption,investment,net export and economic fluctuation by using the Unit-root test,Granger causality test method,etc.The result shows that the consumption fluctuation affects the whole economic fluctuation most and the effect is positive,and the effect of investment fluctuation on the whole economic fluctuation is minor and negative.The net export has nothing to do with the Granger Causality.