Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40 |
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Authors: | Michael Shannon Michael P Kidd |
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Institution: | (1) Lakehead University, Canada;(2) University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the
Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The
method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to
first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The
main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to
close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995
will remain. |
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Keywords: | |
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