| Abstract: | Although the Delphi technique is classified as an “intuitive” method of forecasting, the nature of the intuition which informs the forecasts of the panelists has not been adequately explored. This article attempts to demonstrate that the psychological context within which forecasts are generated is, basically, a highly abstract and simplified image of the future which is explicable in terms of the current world view held by the forecaster. The implications of this for the validity of Delphi predictions are examined. |
