An Economic Evaluation of Model Risk in Long‐term Asset Allocations

Following the recent crisis and the revealed weakness of risk management practices, regulators of developed markets have recommended that financial institutions assess model risk. Standard risk measures, such as the value‐at‐risk (VaR), emerged during the 1990s as the industry standard for risk management and become today a key tool for asset allocation. This paper illustrates and estimates model risk, and focuses on the evaluation of its impact on optimal portfolios at various time horizons. Based on a long sample of US data, the paper finds a non‐linear relation between VaR model errors and the horizon that impacts optimal asset allocations.