广东省金融贷款对地方财政收入影响的实证分析

基于1985—2012年广东省财政收入与广东金融贷款余额的时间序列，运用计量经济学VAR矢量自回归模型对广东省财政收入与地方贷款余额的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现：广东省财政收入与地方贷款余额之间存在长期协整关系，贷款余额每增加1个百分点，广东省财政收入增加0.3033个百分点。并且广东省财政收入的增长是广东金融企业贷款余额的格兰杰原因，而贷款余额的增加却不是财政收入增加的格兰杰原因，表明广东省金融机构贷款结构不合理，贷款资金使用效率低下，造成地方金融机构贷款的低效率使其无法有效带动地方财政收入的增长。最后针对实证结果做出了相应的解释和政策建议。

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Function of Financial Sector and Local Fiscal Revenue——Take the example of Guangdong province

This article analysis the relationship between the function of Financial sector and local fiscal revenue base on the date from 1985 to 2012 by VAR which belongs to Econometrics. Research findings is that: there is co-integration relationship between the fiscal revenue of Guangdong province and loan balance of financial sector. When the financial loan balance rise up a percent , Guangdong fiscal revenue will rise up 0.3033 percent . Besides, the fiscal revenue of Guangdong province is the cause of financial loan balance, but the vice is not set up. The findings demonstrates the mistaking function of public financial and financial , which leads to that local financial loan balance fails to promote the development of economics . At last , the article make explanation of the findings and put forward some advices.