When governments forecast

This article looks at the forecasting industry as turning out products of more interest to museum curators than corporate executives, policymakers etc. It is generally skeptical of most attempts to divine the future —skepticism turning to deep concern when a particular forecast is used to justify government in making a decision better left to the discretion of free, rational citizens. The article looks at the problems of forecasting, the risks involved and, remarkably, how little the reputations of global forecasters seem to be affected by past statements. Finally, it discusses the effectiveness of a separate forecasting body, apart from government which would have power without responsibility. It considers The Resourceful Earth as a sound and cautious analysis, representing itself as a private effort by private individuals, which does not encourage unwarranted emphasis to its conclusions.