人口年龄结构、财政政策与中国高储蓄率

论文以１９９９-２００９年的省际面板数据为样本，对人口年龄结构、财政影响与高储蓄率的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现：（１）影响我国高储蓄率的主要因素不是人口年龄结构，而是经济体的转型特征。（２）人口年龄结构对我国储蓄率的影响存在着明显的城乡差异，其中少儿抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负，而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正；老年抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正，而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负。（３）财政收支比重对城乡居民储蓄率的影响也存在着明显的差异，税收规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正，而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负；支出规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负，而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正。上述发现对于中国未来的改革取向具有重要的启示。

Population Age Structure,Fiscal Policy and High Saving Rate in China

This paper uses the sample of provincial panel data for 1999—2009 to make an empirical study of the relationship between population age structure,fiscal effect and high saving rate.The findings are as follows:(1) The main determinant of high saving rate in China is not population age structure,but the transitional features of the Chinese economy.(2) There is a distinct urban-rural difference in the effect of population age structure on saving rate,in that child dependency ratio has a negative impact on urban household saving rate and a positive one on rural saving rate,while old-age dependency ratio has a positive impact on urban household saving rate and a negative one on rural saving rate.(3) There is also a marked disparity in the effect of the share of fiscal revenue and expenditure on household saving rate.The scale of taxation has a positive effect on urban saving rate and a negative one on rural saving rate,while the scale of expenditure has a negative effect on urban saving rate and a positive one on rural saving rate.The above findings provide important reference for China’s future reform.