未来十年世界石油供需格局判断

随着中国石油对外依存度逐年攀升,世界石油市场变动将对国内石油供应产生重大影响.世界存在中东、中亚—俄罗斯、非洲和中南美洲四大石油供应中心以及亚太、欧洲、北美三大石油供应洼地,北美已实现石油来源多元化,欧洲形成以中亚—俄罗斯为主、中东和非洲为辅的供应格局,亚太地区石油供应严重依赖中东.世界剩余石油资源能够满足未来十年发展需求,但不同情景的供应格局将有所差异.在高油价情景下,美洲地区能够实现石油自给,中东石油将更多地流向亚太；在低油价情景下,全球对中东地区石油的依赖将进一步增强.未来非常规石油、深水石油和伊拉克石油产量增长潜力巨大,有望成为全球石油供应增长的重要支撑.世界石油需求增幅受各国应对气候变化政策执行力度的影响而存在变数.世界石油市场全球化趋势不可逆转,中国应持续强化“走出去”战略,稳步推进石油进口来源多元化,强化关键技术装备研发,把握未来发展制高点,以全球视野保障国家石油供应安全.

Judgment on the world oil supply and demand pattern over the next decade

As China’s dependency on overseas oil climbs year by year,this annual increase in overseas petroleum dependency and fluctuations in the world oil market will exert a major influence on China’s oil supply.The world has four major supply centers,namely the Middle East,Central Asia-Russia,Africa,Central and South America,and three major supply depressions,namely the Asia-Pacific,Europe and North America.North America has achieved diversity in oil sources;and Europe forms such a pattern that oil is mainly supplied by Central Asia-Russia and supplemented by the Middle East and Africa,while the oil supply for the Asia-Pacific is deeply dependent on the Middle East.The world’s remaining oil resources can meet the demand in the next 10 years;however,different situations may bring about different supply patterns.In a scenario of high oil prices,the Americas can be self-sufficient in oil,while the oil from the Middle East will flow to the Asia-Pacific;in a scenario of low oil prices,the world will be increasingly dependent on the oil from the Middle East.Unconventional oil,deep-water oil and oil from Iraq,which has a tremendous potential for growth in production,are expected to be a key support of world oil supply growth.World oil demand growth,influenced by various countries’ measures against climate change,faces uncertainties.As the globalization of the world oil market is certain,China shall adopt a global perspective,further implement the "going abroad" strategy,promote diversification of oil import sources,and strengthen research and development of critical technology and equipment to take a commanding position in ensuring national oil supply safety.