宏观政策的协调机制与欧洲债务危机

通过政策调整损失函数的理论模型分析,认为负的需求冲击是构成欧洲债务危机的前提,而缺乏货币政策协调的持续性扩张财政政策是欧洲债务危机的本质原因。对2000Q1—2010Q1的"PIIGS"的季度数据进行实证分析后,发现5国独立财政政策和欧元区共同货币政策的协调机制是存在冲突的。希腊长期均衡和短期调整均存在主权债务危机风险,因而成为首个爆发危机的国家。西班牙、意大利的短期调整虽暂时缓解了主权债务危机出现的可能,但不能解决发生危机的根本问题。而爱尔兰、葡萄牙只是短期内实施了过度的积极财政计划而造成了主权债务危机假象。

Policy Coordination Mechanism and the Debt Crisis in Europe

Greece debt crisis had five stages in its development and the amount of debts and ten-year government bond yields against Base on fiscal and monetary joint policy model in Euro area,we argue that unwelcome demand shock is the premise of debt crisis and persistent fiscal policy without coordinating monetary policy is the essential reason.By analyzed quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2010Q1 in "PIIGS",we find It is different that the coordination mechanism of independent financial policy in the five countries and the euro area’s common monetary policy,which caused the Greece became the first debt crisis country.