| 广东省对外贸易与GDP增长的动态关系——基于协整分析的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹扬.广东省对外贸易与GDP增长的动态关系——基于协整分析的实证研究[J].经济与管理,2008,22(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹扬 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学,经济学院,福建,福州,350007 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于对广东省近50年来的出口值与GDP之间关系的实证研究,结果表明:就长期来看,出口对于广东省的经济增长具有重要的贡献;但短期来看,出口对经济增长效用较低。针对目前出口贸易面临国内外环境趋紧的不利形势,应尽快寻求以出口带动增长向进出口协调带动增长过渡的有效途径,以真正实现对外贸易与经济增长之间的双向互动。
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| 关 键 词： | 协整分析 Granger因果检验 向量自回归模型(VAR)出口 进口 GDP |
The Dynamic Relationship between the Foreign Trade and the Increasement of GDP in Guangdong Province |
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| Zou Yang.The Dynamic Relationship between the Foreign Trade and the Increasement of GDP in Guangdong Province[J].Economy and Management,2008,22(12). |
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| Authors: | Zou Yang |
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| Institution: | Zou Yang(School of Economics; Fujian Normal University; Fuzhou 350007; China); |
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| Abstract: | Based on doing the evidence research on the relationship between the export and GDP in Guangdong province in nearly 50 years,the results show that the export is an important contribution to the economy increasement in Guangdong province in the long run,but in the short run,the effect of the export to the economy increasement is low.Aimed at the disadvantage trend of the enviornment home and abroad faced by the export trade,we should seek quickly the effective method of transition from increasing promoted by... |
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| Keywords: | co-integrated analysis Granger causation check VAR export import GDP |
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