基于系统动力学的我国社会重大风险仿真研究

基于系统动力学模型，构建社会重大风险系统因果关系图和流图，运用综合指数法对社会重大风险进行预警分析，并对子系统引起的社会重大风险进行仿真预测以监测我国社会重大风险。结果表明：宏观经济、生态环境及社会治理三个子系统监测预警综合值变化较小，趋势比较平稳，社会重大风险监测预警综合指数整体上呈现出小幅上升的趋势。因此，为防范化解我国的社会重大风险，政府应通过提升常规风险与突发事件应急管理机制精确度，加强社会重大风险的制度化控制，打好防范化解社会重大风险的基础。

Simulation Study of Major Chinese Social Risk Based on System Dynamics

Based on the system dynamics model, this paper attempts to draw a causal loop diagram and flow chart illustrating the major social risk system. We simulate and predict socially significant risks caused by subsystems, and use the comprehensive index method to conduct an early warning of socially significant risks to monitor them in China. The results show that the changes in the comprehensive values of the macro-economy, ecological environment, and social governance subsystems are relatively small, with stable trends. The overall comprehensive index of major social risks shows a slight upward trend, but turns to a downward trend by the year 2025. To address and alleviate these risks effectively, the government could enhance the precision of routine risk and emergency management mechanisms. Additionally, the government could strengthen the institutionalized control of major social risks, laying a foundation for preventing and resolving these risks effectively.