我国刘易斯拐点的新检验——基于1990-2010年农业和工业部门劳动边际生产率的考察

刘易斯拐点是“二元经济”从量变到质变的重大飞跃,预示经济发展进入新的转型阶段.针对当前“我国刘易斯拐点是否已经来临”这一基本“国情命题”的判断,基于“刘易斯-拉尼斯-费景汉模型”的边际生产率理论,通过计算、比较和分析1990—2010年我国农业和工业部门的劳动边际生产率数据,证实我国在2005年前后跨越了刘易斯第一拐点,正式进入到劳动力有限供给的新阶段.要完全消除两部门的生产率缺口从而实现“一元经济”,静态估计至少需要32年左右,也即我国将在2043年迎来刘易斯第二拐点.当前政策上,加快推动经济转型升级,有效应对潜在的通胀风险,正确引导劳动密集型产业发展战略,加快劳动用工制度的配套改革,尤为重要

A New Test on Lewis Turning Point in China-An Exploration Based on Labor Marginal Productivity of Agricultural and Industrial Sectors from 1990 to 2010

The Lewis turning point marks a significant leap for dual economy from quantitative to qualitative change,which indicates economic development has entered a new reforming stage.In order to prove China has arrived at Lewis turning point,this paper has calculated,compared and analyzed the labor marginal productivity of agriculture and industry department from 1990 to 2010,which demonstrated China crossed over the first Lewis turning point and entered a new stage in 2005 according to Lewis-Ranis-Fei model.To completely eliminate the productivity gap between two departments and achieve sole economy,it will take about 32 years at least through static estimation,namely China will arrive at the second Lewis turning point in 2043.At present,it is particularly essential that our government promotes economic transformation and upgrading,brings down potential inflation risk effectively,implements labor-intensive industrial development strategy correctly,accelerates the reformation of labor and employment system as quickly as possible.