我国劳动力质量对数量的抑制效应——基于高校招生和人口出生率的省级空间面板分析

利用中国大陆31个省区2005—2019年空间面板数据,采用变异系数、探索性空间数据分析以及空间计量模型等方法分析高等教育招生和人口出生率的时空演进特征,以及劳动力质量对数量的抑制效应。研究发现:(1)高校招生的峰值省份和人口出生率的谷值省份高度重叠,两者的空间集聚特征和收敛性发展趋势明显。(2)高等教育扩招降低了人口出生率,即劳动力质量对数量存在抑制效应,且在高等教育资源富集的东部和中部地区作用最大。(3)家庭财富对生育率的影响呈现较大的区域差异,在我国整体层面和中西部地区以收入效应为主,在东部地区以替代效应为主。(4)公共教育经费支出有助于提高生育率,城镇化降低了中部和东部的生育率,"一孩""一孩半""二孩"等计划生育政策都对生育率产生抑制。

Inhibition Effect of Labor Quality on Labor Quantity in China:Provincial Spatial Panel Analysis Based on Higher Education Enrollment and Birth Rate

By using the spatial panel data of the 31 provinces(municipalities) in Chinese mainland from 2005 to 2019,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of higher education enrollment and birth rate,as well as the inhibition effect of labor quality on labor quantity,with the methods of variation coefficient,exploratory spatial data analysis,and spatial econometric model. It’s found that: (1) The peak value of college enrollment and the low value of birth rate are highly overlapping,and both of them obviously show the characteristics of spatial clustering and convergence. (2)The expansion of higher education enrollment reduces the birth rate,that is,the quality of the labor force has an inhibiting effect on its quantity, and the effect is greatest in the eastern and central regions where higher education resources are mainly distributed. (3) The influence of household wealth on birth rate shows great regional differences. From the perspectives of China and the central and western regions, the income effect is dominant. The substitution effect is dominant in the eastern regions.(4) Public education expenditure helps to increase the birth rate. Urbanization reduces the birth rate in the eastern and central regions,and family planning policies such as "one child", "one and a half children",and "two children" all suppress the birth rate.