居民消费水平影响因素的实证分析

改革开放30年来,经济增长是迅速的,但是消费占GDP的比重在下降。真正转变这种经济增长模式,把依靠外需的经济增长转变为依靠内需,才能使消费在拉动经济增长方面起到作用。利用江苏省1993-2012年的数据资料,从宏微观角度分析了收入增加对居民消费的影响,结果显示劳动者报酬对居民消费具有显著正效应,其促进消费的长期影响明显高于短期影响;促进农村居民消费对拉动经济增长的贡献高于城镇居民。

Influencing Factors of Resident＇s Consumption Level： An Empirical Study

With the policy of opening-up to the outside world and reform, China has seen rapid economic growth in the past 30 years, but the share of consumption in GDP is decreasing. The contribution of consumption to economic growth can be realized by changing the current economic development pattern which relies more on foreign trade rather than on domestic needs. Based on 1993-2012 data of Jiangsu Province, this paper makes a macro analysis of the impact of residents＇ income increase on consumption. The analysis indicates that personal income increase exerts a long-term rather than a short-term positive effect on consumption, and that the contribution of rural residents＇ consumption if stimulated to economic growth would be much greater that that of urban residents＇ consumption.