低酸苹果汁价格变动趋势及其影响因素分析

本文选取1981～2010年间的国际低酸苹果汁等统计数据,运用计量经济学模型以及Johansen协整检验,分析低酸苹果汁出口量、浓缩苹果汁出口量和价格、鲜食苹果出口量和价格对低酸苹果汁价格的影响程度。研究发现,低酸苹果汁价格与各因素之间所存在的长期相互关系,而影响价格变动的主要因素是鲜食苹果的出口量及价格。此外,结合1991～2010年我国苹果汁出口状况,我国低酸苹果汁出口量近年来稳定增长的趋势,结合浓缩苹果汁价格变化情况,分析我国低酸苹果汁出口与国际低酸苹果汁价格之间的关系,围绕提高我国低酸苹果汁国际竞争力的角度,提出相应的改进意见。

An Analysis of the Price Volatility and Influence Factors of Apple J uice

This paper studies factors that impact the price of apple juice(single strength).Choosing data of 1981 to 2010,using empirical analysis and Johansen Co-integration Test,this paper analyzes the impact of variables like export quantity and price of apple juice(single strength),concentrated apple juice and fresh apple on apple juice’ s price.The result indicates that there are long-term dynamic relationships between these variables.The main factor that affects the price of apple juice is the quantity and price of fresh apple.Based on China’ s export data of apple juice from 1991 to 2001,combined with the fluctuation of apple juice price,this paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese and international apple juice prices.Improvement suggestions and measures are given to enhance international competitiveness of Chinese apple juice.