中国人口老龄化与养老金支出的量化分析

随着人口老龄化进程的不断加快，我国养老保障体系面临巨大挑战，确定合理的养老金支付水平将是从容应对这一难题的基本前提。本文基于人口结构理论和柯布一道格拉斯生产函数构建了相应数理模型，对人口老龄化程度与养老金支出水平进行了定量的测算和分析，结果表明：我国在养老保障支出方面存在明显的不足和滞后，现实的养老金支出水平仍然略低于合理值。在结合研究结果和我国国情的基础上，提出相应政策建议用以完善当前的养老保障模式。

Quantitative Analysis of China's Population Aging and Pension Expenditure

With the accelerating of the aging process, China's social security system,especially pension expenditure faces great impacts and challenges. Determining a reasonable level of pension payments would be to the basic premise to deal with this problem. Based on the theory of demographic structure and Cobb-Douglas production function, we develop a mathematical model to measure the proper level of pension spending according to the degree of population aging, resulting that there is significant shortage and lag i...