Terms of trade movements and the global economic crisis

Dramatic changes in the relative prices of goods in international trade have accompanied, and indeed preceded, the recent global crisis. The causes and effects of the relative price changes are analysed by applying the analysis of business cycles developed by Joseph Schumpeter. Schumpeter’s analysis emphasises innovation and structural change (particularly creative destruction) which impart uneven development on the economy and can foster financial crises. This puts the current crisis in the context of long-wave development of the capitalist system and leads to predictions about the likely path of price and output changes over the next few decades.