浅析非洲经济一体化的贸易创造与贸易转移效应

在概述战后非洲一体化发展总体状况的基础上,通过构建理论模型,利用实证分析方法,选择南部非洲发展共同体为研究对象对南部非洲发展共同体的贸易创造和贸易转移问题进行探讨,从而为客观评估非洲经济一体化进程中的静态福利效应提供一种参考。研究结果表明,南部非洲发展共同体并没有发生明显的贸易创造及贸易转移效应,成员国从一体化中获得的福利收益是有限的。

Analysis on the Trade Creation and Diversion Effects in the African Economic Integration

In order to evaluate objectively the static welfare effect in the African economic integration, this paper focuses on the Southern African Development Community(SADC). By using the computable gravity model reconstructed with Michaely indices, the changes in trade flows among member countries due to their membership in such regional integration arrangements is estimated. The empirical results show that trade creation and diversion are not obvious in SADC, and the African integration process has generated little welfare gains for member countries until now.