| 中国对外贸易与城镇失业关系的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕超荣.中国对外贸易与城镇失业关系的实证分析[J].特区经济,2007(2):241-243. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕超荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学,国际经济贸易学院,广东,广州,510006 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1978～2005年的年度数据,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和多变量Granger因果关系检验方法,检验了我国出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间的关系。实证分析结果表明,出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在两个方向的Granger因果关系:进口增长是出口增长的原因;进口增长是城镇失业增加的原因,我国在制订贸易政策与就业政策时须注意三者的协调,以促进经济的增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 进口 出口 城镇失业 协整检验 VECM模型 Granger因果检验 |
Demonstration analysis the relation between China foreign trade and town unemployment |
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| Lv Chao Rong.Demonstration analysis the relation between China foreign trade and town unemployment[J].Special Zone Economy,2007(2):241-243. |
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| Authors: | Lv Chao Rong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the annual data from 1978 to 2005 about the export , import and town unemployment in China, this paper use co - integration analysis , vector error correction model and granger causality test to prove their relationship. The empirical result shows that there exists a unique co - integration relationship , and there are two unidirectional Granger - causality relationships from import to export, and from import to town unemployment. |
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| Keywords: | import export town unemployment co - integration test VECM Granger causality test |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
