A cohort analysis of household vehicle expenditure in the U.S. and Japan: A possibility of generational marketing |
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Authors: | Kosei Fukuda |
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Institution: | (1) College of Economics, Nihon University, 1-3-2 Misakicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8360, Japan |
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Abstract: | This paper shows the usefulness of cohort analysis for generational marketing. Aggregate data classified by age and period
are decomposed into age, period, and generational cohort effects. We compare two cohort-analysis models, the constrained multiple
regression model and the Bayesian cohort model. The empirical results that are common to the household vehicle expenditure
ratio in the U.S. and Japan are as follows: (1) among a total of three effects, the period effect is the smallest; (2) with
the exception of the latest birth cohort, the cohort effect shows a clear upward trend; (3) the age effect decreases in the
20s and 30s, and next increases with a peak detected in the late 50s, and finally decreases. We provide marketing implications
for cohort segmentation and forecasting. |
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Keywords: | |
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