上海市土地综合承载力的系统动力学研究

研究目的: 通过模拟上海市2010—2020年社会经济发展状态，为上海市未来发展模式的选择提供参考。研究方法: 理论分析和实证分析相结合、系统动力学等方法。研究结果: 2015年，5种情景模拟状态承载力指数从高到低依次是：现状延续型、资源节约型、经济优先型、协调发展型、环境保护型；2020年依次是协调发展型、现状延续型、资源节约型、环境保护型、经济优先型。研究结论: “十二五”规划中对2015年和2020年上海市人口规模的预测值大于现状延续型、资源节约型、环境保护型和协调发展型4种模式对人口的预测值，处于超载状态；对国民经济生产总值的预测值大于环境保护型模拟值，小于其他4种发展方式模拟值，上海市土地资源对经济规模的承载能力在预测期内可以基本满足实际发展的需求。

A Study on System Dynamics of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Shanghai City

The purpose of the paper is to simulate the development status of Shanghai City from 2010 to 2020, providing a reference for the future development mode of Shanghai city. Theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and Systems Dynamics (SD) analysis were used in this study. In 2015, the carrying capacity indexes of 5 socio-economic development model scenarios from highest to lowest are the current situation continuation mode, resource-saving mode, economy-priority mode, the harmony-development mode and environment-protection mode. And the order in 2020 changes into the harmony-development mode, the current situation continuation mode, resource-saving mode, environment-protection mode and economy-priority mode. Population scale predicted value, in the 12th Five-Year Plan, is greater than the one in the current situation continuation mode, resource-saving mode, the harmony-development mode and the environment-protection mode. Therefore, it is overload. GDP predicted value from the 12th Five-Year Plan is greater than the one in the environment-protection mode, i.e., it is less than the values in the other models. The paper concludes that the land resources carrying capacity of the economy of scale can meet the actual development needs in the forecast period in Shanghai.