人民币汇率、出口退税对加工贸易收支动态冲击的实证研究

2005年汇率改革后人民币迅速升值,而之后除2009年受金融危机影响外,中国加工贸易顺差不降反增;同时,出口退税迅速增加。为解释这一复杂现象,文章用VAR模型来实证汇率、出口退税、加工贸易需求对加工贸易收支的动态冲击效应。研究发现:对加工贸易收支贡献最大的是加工贸易需求,其次是出口退税和汇率;人民币贬值和出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易收支均有J-curve效应,出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易进口正向促进效应大于出口的正向促进效应,进而导致加工贸易收支恶化。结果表明:人民币升值对加工贸易收支改善作用有限,但会降低加工贸易进出口总额;加工贸易进口对出口退税的过度敏感,提示中国政府要防止出口退税骗税和出口商品香港一日游现象。

An Empirical Research on the Dynamic Impulse of RMB Exchange Rate and Export Tax Rebate to Processing Trade Balance

RMB has appreciated rapidly since the exchange rate reform in 2005, while China＇ s processing trade surplus has been increasing since 2011, except decreasing in 2009 which caused by the financial crisis. Meanwhile, China＇s export tax re- bate increased rapidly. To interpret this sophisticated phenomenon, the paper investigates the implications of RMB REER, ex- port tax rebate （ETR）, processing trade （PT） demand on the PT balance with VAR model. The PT demand has the greatest contribution to PT balance, followed by ETR and REER. Both the devaluation of RMB and the increase of export tax rebate have a J-curve type response on the PT balance in short time. And J-curve type response of export tax rebate happens because process ing trade import increases more rapidly than its export so that PT balance deteriorates in short time. The result shows that REER appreciation on the PF balance will be limited, but will reduce the total of PT. The VF import response of ETR implies that the govenlment shouht prevent the behavior of ETR fraud and the phenomenon of export commodities one-day tour in Hong Kong.