FDI的利润汇出、出口创汇能力对我国国际收支的影响及趋势分析

本文运用1985-2006年的相关数据,通过区分和考虑不同类型外国直接投资对国际收支的影响渠道,分析了外国直接投资的利润汇出和出口创汇能力对我国国际收支特别是经常账户差额的影响。结果表明,外国直接投资是形成我国当前双顺差的主要因素。但是未来这种趋势将会发生变化。本文以2006年为基期进行预测,未来10年内,外国直接投资的出口创汇能力将由于外国直接投资从出口导向型更多地转向市场寻求型而下降,而利润汇出趋势将增强。因而,应加强对外国直接投资的动态监管,减少外国直接投资对我国国际收支的负面影响,避免可能由外国直接投资引起的经常账户危机。

The Effect of Profit Repatriation and Capacity to Earn Foreign Exchange through Exports of FDI on China's Balance of Payments

Using the data during 1985-2006,by considering the different effects of FDI on the balance of payment,the paper analyses how the profit repatriation and the capacity to earn foreign exchange through exports of FDI affect China's balance of payments,especially the current account.The analysis shows that FDI is an important factor that affects China's twin-surplus,but the trend will change in the near future,because more export-oriented FDIs convert into market-seeking FDIs,the capacity to earn foreign exchange through exports of FDI will decline and the trend of FDI's profit repatriation will enhance.Therefore,it is imperative to intensify the dynamic supervision of FDI,which can reduce the negative effect of FDI and avoid the "crisis of current account" likely caused by FDI.