中国温室气体减排成本有效性分析——以纯电动汽车为例

从减排成本有效性的角度,研究了纯电动汽车的碳排放和减排成本的特性及其相互关系,对纯电动汽车减排成本的关键影响因素进行了敏感性分析。结果显示:在现有的技术条件下,纯电动汽车的减排成本较高,在万元每吨数量级上;纯电动汽车的减排成本随着其电池容量的加大而增加;减排成本受多方面因素的影响,有较大的下降潜力;当电池成本下降到2000元/kW·h以下或汽油价格高于11元/L时,纯电动汽车可以实现减排成本为负,此时发展纯电动汽车是极具竞争力的减排手段。

Cost Effectiveness Analysis on Emission Reduction of Greenhouse Gas in China:Taking Electric Vehicle as Example

This paper studies the characteristics of carbon emission reduction and emission reduction cost of electric vehicles and their relationship from the perspective of the effectiveness of emission reduction cost.And it studies the key factors influencing emission reduction cost of electric vehicles by using the sensitivity analysis method.The result shows as follows:under the existing technology condition,the cost of emission reduction is 10000 yuan per ton,and increases with the increase of battery capacity;the cost is affected by many factors and there exists a significant decline in potential;when battery cost decreases down to 2000 yuan/kW·h below,or gasoline price is higher than 11 yuan/L,the emission reduction cost of electric vehicles could be negative,and developing electric vehicles would be a very competitive means to reduce carbon emission.