| 2020年中国人粮关系情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晶. 2020年中国人粮关系情景分析[J]. 经济地理, 2010, 30(12) |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 德州学院地理系; |
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| 基金项目： | 2010年度山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据耕地、复种、粮作比例、播面单产、人均消费需求等不同条件组合,讨论不同情景下中国分县的粮食产量和人口承载力,向国家层面汇总,对2020年(全面小康)中国人粮关系的未来前景进行系统分析,探讨不同情景下中国人口—土地—粮食的互动关系,为中国人粮关系协调发展提供决策依据。结果表明:在不同耕地、复种指数、粮作比例和播面单产组合下,我国2020年人口承载力在9.28亿人和16.96亿人之间,不同的生产经营和消费方式对中国是否能实现人粮平衡具有较大的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 人粮关系 情景分析 预测中国 2020年 |
THE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF RELATION BETWEEN POPULATION AND GRAIN IN CHINA IN 2020 |
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| ZHANG Jing. THE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF RELATION BETWEEN POPULATION AND GRAIN IN CHINA IN 2020[J]. Economic Geography, 2010, 30(12) |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Jing (geography department,Dezhou University,Dezhou 253023,Shandong,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the different combination of cultivated land area, replanting index, grain ratio of sown area, production per planting area and grain consumption per capita, this paper firstly gives a scenario analysis of grain production and its population carrying capacity in China at the county scale. By aggregating the result of each province, it then systematically analyzes the land carrying capacity and quantitatively depicts the land carrying capacity in China under the scenario of 2020 (in which the we... |
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| Keywords: | relation between population and grain future scenarios forecasting China 2020 |
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