地方政府专项债经济增长效应的实证研究

自2015年地方政府专项债券产生以来,其发行规模不断扩大.经济下行压力的加剧,也使地方政府专项债被赋予了扩投资和稳经济的重要角色.在此背景下,文章运用2015-2019年省级面板数据实证分析了专项债与经济增长之间的关系,研究表明专项债不仅能够通过公共投资直接促进经济增长,还能够通过吸引民间投资间接拉动经济增长;此外专项债的逆经济周期调节能力呈现出区域异质性,相比于其他地区,地方政府专项债对东部或发达地区经济的促进作用更加明显.

Empirical Research on the Economic Growth Effect of Local Government Special Bond

Since the emergence of local government special bonds in 2015,the scale has been expanding.With the aggravation of economic downward pressure,the special bonds of local governments have been given an important role in expanding investment and stabilizing the economy.Under this background,the article empirically analyzes the relationship between special bond and economic growth by using the provincial panel data from 2015 to 2019.The research shows that special bond can not only promote economic growth directly through public investment,but also indirectly by attracting private investment.In addition,the regulation ability of special bond shows regional heterogeneity,compared with other regions,the economic promotion effect of special bond on the eastern or developed regions is more obvious.