中国政府引导基金投资引导效果实证分析——基于联立方程模型

本文在引入创新水平和金融发展水平等区域异质性指标对传统联立方程模型进行优化的基础上,利用我国31个省区市2011-2018年面板数据,实证检验政府引导基金对非引导类投资基金的引导效果.结果显示,整体上我国政府引导基金的引导效果显著,二者之间并未表现出挤出效应,且这种强引导效果在中、东、西部地区间无明显差别,其主要解释原因归结于政府引导基金管理自上而下的政策惯性、引导基金的零散化分布结构特点以及体制改革引发的政府职能边界的调整.其他区域异质性指标引导效应显现出区域分化,东部地区受金融市场化指标影响显著,而西部地区的特征变量向科技创新水平倾斜.

An Empirical Analysis on the Guidance Effect of China's Government Guided Funds--Based on Simultaneous Equation Model

On the basis of introducing regional heterogeneity indicators such as innovation level and financial development level to optimize the traditional equation model,the article empirically tests the guiding effect of government guided funds on non-guided investment funds by using the panel data of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and cities in China from 2011 to 2018.The results show that,generally,the guiding effect of the government guidance fund is significant,and there is no obvious difference between the central,eastern and western regions.The main reasons for the strong guiding effect are attributed to the top-down policy inertia of the government guiding fund management,the scattered distribution structure characteristics and the government posts caused by the system reform adjustment of energy boundary.The leading effect of other regional heterogeneity indicators shows regional differentiation.The eastern region is significantly affected by financial marketization indicators,while the characteristic variables in the western region incline to the level of scientific and technological innovation.