财政货币政策、房价波动与宏观杠杆——基于信心传导机制的分析

利用市场主体信心的微观调查数据,借助仿真情景模拟下的反事实实验方法对信心能否在财政政策和货币政策调控杠杆与房价的过程中发挥作用进行实证分析,而后利用TVP-VAR模型对其内在机制展开深入探讨。研究表明,当信心被虚拟冲击抵消后,政策效果与基准结果呈现明显分化。即信心能够显著影响财政货币政策对杠杆与房价的作用效果,且经进一步实证分析得知信心正向影响于房价、负向影响于宏观杠杆。因此,政府在实施政策调控时,应注意市场预期的引导,在借助信心渠道强化房价调控政策效果的同时,也要关注信心对杠杆调控政策效果的干扰,并注意政策制定的连贯性与稳定性,以及财政货币政策的协调搭配。

Fiscal and Monetary Policy,House Prices and Leverage--Analysis Based on Confidence Transmission Mechanism

Based on micro-survey data of market participants’confidence,the artical uses the counterfactual simulation to identify the role of confidence in fiscal policy transmission or in monetary policy transmission to control leverage and house prices.And then uses the TVP-VAR model to explore its internal mechanism.When the confidence is offset by the virtual shock,the policy effect is different from the benchmark result.That means the confidence can significantly affect the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on leverage and house prices.Further,confidence positively affects house prices and negatively affects leverage.The government should pay attention to the guidance of market expectations when implementing policy regulation.While strengthening the policy effect on house price regulation by means of confidence channels,the government should also pay attention to the interference of confidence on the effect of leverage regulation policies,to the consistency and stability of policy formulation,and to coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.