| 日本地震经济恢复及其对中国经济影响预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄珂,韩国文,刘亚坤.日本地震经济恢复及其对中国经济影响预测[J].现代日本经济,2012(1):21-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄珂 韩国文 刘亚坤 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北,武汉430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部规划基金项目，教育部和国家人事部留学回国人员基金项目，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 预测日本地震后的经济恢复情况及其对中国经济的影响具有重要的现实意义。考虑到巨灾从发生到重建过程中的相似性,首先利用历史上与本次地震相似的7次地震构建特定模型来进行预测;然后引入模糊数学的贴近度来确定对照地震的权值;最后根据模型预测的日本综合恢复度和单个经济指标的恢复度,详细地从制造业,能源和投资3个方面探讨了本次地震对于我国经济的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 东日本大地震 模糊数学 主成分分析 经济预测 中国经济发展 |
Forecasting the Post-earthquake Japanese Economic Recovery and the Impacts on China |
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| Huang Ke
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Han Guo-wen
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Liu Ya-kun.Forecasting the Post-earthquake Japanese Economic Recovery and the Impacts on China[J].Contemporary Economy OF Japan,2012(1):21-29. |
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| Authors: | Huang Ke Han Guo-wen Liu Ya-kun |
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| Institution: | Huang Ke Han Guo - wen Liu Ya - kun (School of Economy and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei,430072,China) |
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| Abstract: | The 3.11 Tohoku earthquake brought Japan the most serious disaster after World War II.It has important implications to forecast the post - earthquake Japanese economic recovery and its impacts on China. Considering the similarities among the disaster occurrence as well as the post - disaster reconstruction,this study first develops a model to describe the past 7 strong earthquakes,and then introduces the degree of similarity between fuzzy sets to determine the weight of each earthquake.We finally compute the recovery degree for aggregate and separate economic indicators and analyze the impacts of the Tohoku earthquake upon China, with special regard to the sectors of manufacturing,energy and investment. |
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| Keywords: | Tohoku Earthquake Fuzzy Mathematics Principal Component Analysis(PCA) Economic Forecast China Development |
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