基于羊群效应的滞留旅客转移决策模型及其仿真

针对灾害气候中各重要交通枢纽（汽车站、火车站、机场等）有大面积人群滞留的情况，考虑人群行为的羊群效应，采用贝叶斯网络和影响图作为建模工具，构建滞留旅客转移决策模型，并使用Java语言在Repast平台下建立了考虑羊群效应的滞留旅客转移多主体仿真模型，定量分析了滞留人群存在羊群效应时旅客转移模式的变化及在不同政策环境下羊群效应的系统性能的影响，为政府应对交通枢纽中大面积人群滞留问题提供决策参考。

Modeling and Simulation of Stranded Passengers Transfer Decision-making on the Basis of Herd Behaviors

According to the case of large crowd being stranded at transportation hubs（such as bus station, railway station, airport, etc.）in climate disasters, a model is designed to represent passengers＇ transferring among transportation hubs on the basis of herd behaviors. Bayesian network and influence diagram are used in model to describe passenger＇s decision-making process, and a multi-agent simulation model is developed in Repast platform using Java language. Through the simulation data, the influence of herd behaviors over stranded passengers＇ transfer mode and system performance in different policies are analyzed, some policy recommendations for the government are proposed.