| China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami |
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| 作者单位： | Chief China Economist, Nomura International （HK） Limited, Hong Kong |
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| 摘 要： | This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China＇s economy to the global financial tsunami. China ＇s economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China＇s economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China＇s economy. We forecast a sustained eeonomic recovery in China in 2009-2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国经济 金融危机 海啸 国内生产总值 公共部门 经济增长 全球经济 原因 |
China： Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami |
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| Authors: | Mingchun Sun |
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| Institution: | Chief China Economist, Nomura International (HK) Limited, Hong Kong. Email: mingchun.sun@nomura.com. |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China's economy to the global financial tsunami. China's economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China's economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China's economy. We forecast a sustained economic recovery in China in 2009–2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010. |
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| Keywords: | deleverage economic growth export financial crisis |
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