外商直接投资对中国国际收支影响的研究

外商直接投资（FDI）可以从多方面对一国的国际收支产生影响,包括对资本和金融账户的直接影响和对经常账户的间接影响。本文结合中国具体情况,利用1982-2009年的相关历史数据,通过建立贡献率指标,分析外商直接投资对国际收支产生的综合影响。结果显示,近年来,由于外商直接投资持续、大量的流入,不仅直接对国际收支产生正面影响,而且带动了出口快速增长,积累了巨额贸易顺差,成为导致国际收支失衡的重要因素之一。同时,撤资、利润汇出等负面效应所带来的国际收支风险也应被密切关注,尤其是在经济环境恶化时期。

The Research of the Impact of FDI on the Balance of Payments in China

Foreign direct investment（FDI） may affect the balance of payments through various channels including the direct effect on the capital and financial account and the indirect effect on the current account.The purpose of this study is to examine the overall impact of FDI on the balance of payments in the case of China by constructing Contribution Rate Index with selected historical data from 1982 to 2009.The results show that in recent years,the sustained large inflow of FDI not only has great impact on the balance of payments directly by itself,but also promotes export effectively so as to accumulate large trade surplus,which has become one of the factors that cause the imbalance in the balance of payments.Meanwhile,close attention should be also paid to the balance of payments risk arising from negative effects such as divestment and income remittance,especially in the deteriorating economic situation.